Snoqualmie Weather

Weather update (Wed 1:20 pm)... Chances for a little snow in the foothills tonight have weakened somewhat since this morning's models runs. Now only the Euro expects anything at all (still less than 1").  Otherwise we look to remain mostly dry the next several days but very cold for this time of year.  I'll update if I see any material changes to this forecast February will likely mark the coldest month in 28 years. 😨

There may still be pockets of flurries out there this evening but by now even your iPhone weather app should be giving the  👍  for Snoqualmie and North Bend weather for the foreseeable future.  Similar to this morning’s update, models are all still in agreement for any material snow threats to remain well south (Oregon, maybe SW Wa) tomorrow and quite possibly dry, other than a few flurries, the rest of the week.  There may be some eaterly gap breezes a t times this week in response to offshore storms, but not in ideal proximity to really kick winds into gear. I’ll update if I see things take a turn. Hope everyone had a nice (or at least tolerable) extended winter break! Judging by the Brown Bear lines today I’m not the only one taking the ‘under’ bet on inclement weather this week:)

Areas of scattered light snow showers falling this morning. Not much if any accumulation expected. The main snow potential forecasters have been watching (snow for late Sun/Mon) still appears to be heading well south of us with a storm track making landfall in south/central Oregon.  Dare I say it, but the kids might finally be heading back to school tomorrow! 😃 I don't expect much of anything as far as precipitation goes as all models are now e ssentially in agreement on this, but I'll take another look later afternoon/evening. Extended outlook (subject to greater uncertainty): Storm track appears to remain well south for the coming week, which aside from little snow potential, also means not likely to see more than just breezy conditions from our gap winds. We remain very cold seasonally. For Friday-March 1st I'm not sure we'll crack 40°. While warmer than recent days, that would still be 12° below the normal daily high. Baseball season is right around the corner 😨

With recent fringe snow events there's been some chatter on threads regarding local elevations. I thought it was worthy of a post, building on some past work I've done to rank some notable Eastside foothill locations by max elevation (in feet) above sea level. Additions I've missed are welcome! The source I've used is King County's iMap feature which incorporates a digital ground model constructed from LIDAR (light imaging detection and ranging) data. Basically laser measurements of distance above sea level taken from aircraft surveillance. There are also several free GPS apps that probably get close enough (+/- 50 ft).

Weather update-Saturday 8:30 am  It’s still early in forecasting snow potential for Sunday into Monday, but the latest model runs have backed way off, with only the Euro runs showing Snoqualmie/North Bend getting any precipitation at all. The situation further south (e.g. Portland) looks more daunting Monday. This obviously could change markedly based on storm track and will take another look tomorrow morning. Still have bread and milk ?

We may see light snow showers this morning, then a heavier mix possible this afternoon and into Saturday. Because the air is likely to remain above freezing I’m only forecasting 0-2” for higher elevations in Snoqualmie and North Bend over next 24 hours. I’m watching a better chance for accumulating snow Monday, as well as keeping an eye on a potential windstorm late Tues/Wed. Will update as we get closer. A transition out of this cold rut doesn’t look to occur in February.

We’re at the eve of yet another threat for snow in the foothills. Tomorrow through Wed morning at elevations ~500-1500ft (covering lower Snoqualmie/North Bend up to higher elevations of Eagle Pt., Wilderness Rim and Tiger Mtn/SR18), depending on the model run I’m expecting anywhere from 0-8” of wet snow accumulation. How’s that for conviction! The tricky part is all areas are expected to remain just above freezing during precipitation with a W/SW wind aloft. Lot’s of moisture providing lots of snow for the mountains. But no frigid Frazier outflows or chilling east gap winds for the foothills like a week ago that kept snow from changing to rain.

Models indicating potential for 1-3” of wet snow ~Wed. Temps right on the bubble (rain vs. snow) though. Next weekend possibly another snow event, but much higher uncertainty.

As expected the cascade foothills (including susceptible communities from Gold Bar to the Columbia Gorge) had quite the gap wind event today. For Snoqualmie and North Bend, notable easterly winds arrived late last night and peak gusts arrived right on schedule this morning (~6 am). NWS finally came out with an ex post Wind Advisory about 6:15 am, but our top winds (~45-55 mph) had come and gone by then. Conditions still remained very windy all day with  gusts frequently reaching 40 mph until afternoon. As it turns out, today's wind event was likely the second strongest of our 2018/2019 stormy season so far. Here's the unofficial top ranked as monitored from a few personal wunderground anemometers located around Snoqualmie Ridge (tried to weed out extreme readings): Date Gust Direction 01/08/19 58 mph E 02/14/19 56 mph E 01/06/19 53 mph S 01/16/19 47 mph E 01/11/19 47 mph E 12/20/18 46 mph S There were no reported power outages that I could tell from PSE's map, likel...

NWS just reported Snoqualmie Pass set a new daily record for snowfall on February 12, 2019 when 31.5" of snow fell.

Looking at the latest model runs, my prior **High Wind Watch** calling for 40+ mph gusts may be too conservative. I now see substantial agreement for gap wind gusts tonight 45-55 mph. Timing has pushed a bit later, with peak gusts likely ~6 am Thursday, but expect strong E/SE gusts late tonight through morning tomorrow.  The winds should be triggered by a fairly potent low dropping down from the gulf of Alaska and e ventually track into central Oregon, just grazing us. That's the right setup to begin pulling on high pressure from E. WA. From a precipitation stand point, not much. It also isn't going to draw in super cold air from the Frazier B.C. gaps, but cold enough for slight chance of light snow. Longer range, NWS now thinks snow levels will be around ~1,500 ft into this weekend which would keep the threat of snow in the foothills to a minimum. This of course may change as we do look to stay much cooler than normal for mid-February and given that it's difficult to rule ...

NWS still has an advisory up until 10 pm for East Puget Sound Lowlands - up to 3" more snow possible. I think they're finally erring on the conservative side for us 🤔 . After reviewing the radar however, the atmosphere looks to finally be drying out. It's been a long stubborn process. Wet snow mixed with rain through much of today. I don't think poor Wilderness Rim in North Bend ever did switch over to rain 😨 . Overnight I expect rouge showers, poss ibly as wet snow, but with light south easterly winds and cloud cover we should stay above freezing all night, so I don't expect more than a little extra slush come morning. Wednesday should be mostly dry. For Thursday I'm going on **high wind watch** with gap wind gusts to 40+ mph. Looking like early morning hours Thurs. You may be woken if you have vinyl windows with a bedroom facing east. Our house sounds like a creaking ship when these winds howl. The winds we'll be triggered by a fairly potent low...

NWS has extended a Winter Weather Advisory for the East Puget Sound lowlands until noon above about 500 ft for an additional 1-3" possible. Winter Storm Warnings continue into the evening for the mountains with no ETA yet on I-90 from Ext. 34 to Ellensburg reopening. Snoqualmie Pass is measuring snow accumulation in "feet" of course. Higher elevations like Wilderness Rim or Eagle Pt.-SR may not switch over, just run out of precipitation..eventually. Most sho uld see a transition to periods of light rain or no precipitation this afternoon. Gap winds let up overnight and light southerly breezes have taken over. That should greatly help to usher in warmer air aloft. As expected, appears to have snowed for most, if not all of the overnight period. Depending on exact spot, 24 hr snow totals at noon are likely to be in the 12-18" range. Wow! One for the ages. I was up here during Dec'08-early 2009 epic snowy winter. We tallied ~30" that entire winter. Feb-1...

While nearly impossible to find good spotter location in our yards given the near blizzard conditions outside, my estimate is we're getting ~.75"/hour from this snow storm (or 5-6" since snow began accumulating early afternoon). I know.. hard to believe not loads more. We have drifts measuring close to 2 feet in places in our east facing backyard! The cold gap winds gusting ~25-30 mph have only served to knock a little off the full potential snow rates from th is juicy storm that rolled in off the coast this afternoon. Had it tracked just a little farther north across Vancouver Is. we probably be all rain right now. Once these E winds kicked in shortly before noon today temps dropped from 35° to 30° in under two hours! Normally the warmest point of the day in Feb. We're currently stabilized at 30° and I haven't yet seen any signs of the warm air invading at all. The winds aren't expected to completely die down until ~7am. At that point, warmer air should have ...

My forecast for Monday and Tuesday in Snoqualmie/North Bend vicinity.. Monday am: flurries - trace accumulation and arrival of light easterly gap winds Monday pm: snow arrival ~2-3pm, 1-4" through midnight, moderate gap winds prevalent (~25-35 mph gusts) Tuesday am (12a-12p): 2-6", gap winds persist but begin to wind down Tuesday pm: should warm enough for any linger precipitation to fall as rain Extended: we should dry out for at least Wed into Thursday. Will update as we get closer. Commentary: Here comes the larger storm Cliff Mass is now calling "Slushmageddon". What does this mean for Snoqualmie/North Bend? Tricky forecast indeed, but this afternoon and overnight I expect a hard fought 3-way battle between the potent low front approaching vs. gap winds vs. warm air. Unlike Seattle-area, I expect gap winds to fend off warmer air (at least for a while), but at the same time, how much snow can the gap winds eat remains to be seen. In a nutshell, for snow total...

My near-term forecast for Snoqualmie/North Bend vicinity... •Sunday ~6pm-midnight: 1-3" of snow, gap winds should not be a factor. Not a lot of moisture but at a typical 10/1 snow/rain ratio we only need .3 in of rain equivalent to hit the high end expectation. Ground also very cold, expect it all to stick! •Monday afternoon (12p-3p)-Tues morning: you've probably heard by now has huge snow potential, however the pattern is very uncertain at this point. This storm should pack more moisture than recent storms but also may draw in warmer air. We'll also likely have moderate gap winds (similar in intensity to Friday night) drying out the air.

Flurries are falling this morning (not the main event). Moderate snow still expected to begin ~12-2p. I'm upgrading my prior forecast somewhat on 24 hr snow totals to ~4-7" as gap winds don't look to pickup enough to eat snow until after ~9pm.

I'm not predicting a  # Snowmageddon  event, but by all means be prepared for anything as we've recently experienced. What I do expect is maybe half the snow depth in Snoqualmie/North Bend tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning vs. what we saw last Sun/Mon. Higher resolution model consensus is for 3-6" 24hr totals Fri/Sat in central puget sound area, probably a bit less out here if the snow-eating gap winds, which act to dry out the air, are gusting moderately (~25-35 mph) fr om the east as I expect them to be by late Fri/early Sat. Consensus on timing of when snow starts tomorrow appears to have shifted back toward ~12-2pm Fri afternoon, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some light snow or flurries in the morning. On a side note, many of you probably do, and should be following Cliff Mass, a renowned professor of Atmospheric Sciences at UW. His latest update (just released ~8pm) comments that snow totals should be "more towards the Cascades". I'm just...

Latest higher resolution model runs for Fri/Sat Snow in Snoqualmie and North Bend: Euro ~6" (gap winds ~30 mph a factor, but not until Sat am) UW ~2" to 3" (drying effect from gap winds) NAM ~7" Will update this evening. Est likely to change, perhaps significantly either way.  I'm leaning toward actual being closest to the first estimate (~6") as Euro has been excellent at predicting our gap winds and all models think we'll have plenty of precipitation around. Euro also has light snow creeping sooner then previously expected, perhaps beginning even before morning commute Friday-initially light snowfall but getting heavier as day goes on with bulk to accumulations later afternoon into evening. A new development to start next week: as of now, Euro says Monday snow potential mostly a bust. Had shown 9" as recent as last night, now.. next to nothing. Honestly, that is too far our to even attempt a snow forecast for W WA.

The daily high today was 29°, not to be confused with the daylight high of only 23°.. mid-high teens overnight to day break, high Tueday upper 20’s at best (sun aided)

Where are we? Currently 23° this afternoon with ~10” of fresh dry powder on the ground. Just crazy! #wawx #WaWinterStorm 0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes Reply     Retweet     Like   3   View Tweet activity

Euro model’s highest estimate (4“) past 48 hrs for Snoqualmie has already been exceded. Several Ridge spotters showing 4+ inches of snow. Same model calling for additional 3” 9pm-noon Monday. NAM actually on board this time, calling for 2” more snow

Snoqualmie Weather ‏   @snoqualmiewx   Feb 3 More Euro backing off total forecasted precip a little for foothills, trace-2" of snow from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. There’s also more snow potential next Thursday/Friday. #wawx #LetitSnow 3 replies 0 retweets 11 likes Reply   3 Retweet   Like   11 View Tweet activity Snoqualmie Weather ‏   @snoqualmiewx   Feb 2 More Models still conflicting for W. Washington potential snow event. For foothills, flakes should be seen Sunday, if not morning then afternoon. Real uncertainty is overnight Sunday/Monday. Euro calling for 1-4” while NAM only calling for trace. #wawx #LetitSnow