Snoqualmie Weather

A relatively mundane week ahead, though some models keep playing with a brief warmup mid-week.  Which many folks, admittedly myself included, have been longing for. We should remain dry though mostly overcast, Sunday and most of the day Monday, before some light rain looks to move back into Western Washington Monday evening into early Tuesday.  However, some of the ensembles have turned even drier, with perhaps only a sprinkle with the bulk of the moisture moving to the southwest of us. We begin to really widen the daily temperature ranges with the sun now up over 12 hours as we close in on the Spring Equinox in three weeks.  While Lows look chilly (in the low 30°s) Tuesday and Wednesday morning, a warm front makes its way through, warming Highs into the upper 50°'s, and even possible hitting 60° by Thursday.   weather.us The warmth is expected to be brief however.   A more organized system is expected next weekend, likely bringing a return of widespread rain and more seasonable te

  windy.com The southern portion of a so-called Atmospheric River begins to impact Washington state on Sunday. Expect showers to begin after 2pm.  A lack of east winds through the passes should allow for warming temperatures through the afternoon, which has already caused precipitation to change over to a rain/snow mix at Snoqualmie Pass.  Avalanche control has seemed to be an ongoing theme at Snoqualmie Pass lately.  Be sure to check pass conditions if you head over the pass this week. It has been an epic snow year indeed!  Back at home I know many folks are still repairing and cleaning up from the major Feb 13th gap wind storm. Taking a closer look, that windstorm was right up there with the big ones measured by pressure gradient between Yakima-Seattle (YKM-SEA), a whopping 13.7 mb!  30 ms = 67 mph (the 2/13 peak gust) Keep us tuned in! We take a high interest level in forecasting the timing and accuracy of these wind events, and are usually first warning about them. As a reminder,

Snoqualmie Valley/ central Cascade foothills Thursday PM-Friday AM: Snow potential - models are diverging for the above time period, but this isn't the main event.  The NAM model has a Low making landfall even further south (Lincoln City-Eugene OR swatch) than what was projected in earlier model runs yesterday.  If NAM wins out, we remain bone dry.  If the Low path follows the Euro model projection, we'll see a dusting-2" in the central foothills. Snow level expected near sea level with the cold air so your altitude matters less than during wet snow events.  Snow totals we forecast are smaller than advertised by the media due to the gap winds expected to eat/evaporate some of the falling snow. Winds - models are converging on gap winds from the east to begin Thursday late AM/early PM to reach peak gust potential (~30-40 mph) from 6pm to midnight and remain gusty through the day on Friday. Friday PM-Saturday AM: Bigger snow (and Wind) potential - Friday PM through Saturday

Sunday will certainly feel chillier as colder air had begun to filter in.  The central Cascades, where a Winter Storm Warning is still in effect, may continue see periods of heavy snowfall into the evening hours. Foothills/Snoqualmie Valley: A convergence zone is expected to form, enhancing precipitation potential for a few hours later this evening.  It still looks like there's fairly good southerly flow aloft so it may come in a bit too warm for snow, but the heavier showers are known to at least temporarily bring the snow level down (~500ft). The GFS model is showing a more favorable setup for this. I'd say there's a 50% chance some might see snowflakes by the tail end of the Super Bowl tonight, or later into the evening (after 8-10 pm), potentially lasting into the overnight hours. But that’s the crux of it.  For the last several days we've seen the GFS model persistently call for a fair amount of snowfall in the foothills, tonight and over the coming days, while the