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"Sneak Attack Windstorm", This Was NOT

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CME commodities trading pit, Chicago IL /Associated Press Should we really be relying on one source for our news?  Relating that question to last Wednesday’s wind event, should we be relying on one type of weather model forecast? Far too many in our community were caught by total surprise with Wednesday’s major windstorm that hit the Pacific Northwest. Puget Sound Energy Emergency Coordination Center even called it a Sneak Attack Windstorm.   Damaging southerly winds early Wednesday exceeded 60 mph in many Puget Sound locations, including the Snoqualmie Valley. Top Wind Gusts - Snoqualmie Ridge (2020/21): The problem is we’re too often fed one baseline forecast that is all encompassed by the mucky law of averages with little awareness of the standard deviation of possibilities from the mean.  Unless your confidence interval is extremely high, only forecasting a wind gust range of say 30-35 mph when there are other models (and very good ones at that) saying 60+ mph, clearly this isn’t e

The Week Ahead - Losing Count

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Sunday and most of Monday appear to be the relative calm before the storm(s) mid-week.  Should be dry with partly to mostly cloudy skies today.  For Monday, models are mixed as to whether a weak disturbance brings lighter rain back into the forecast, or we may stay mostly dry during the daylight hours. But the real action looks to move in Tuesday and Wednesday.   I’ve lost count on the number of storms centers that tease our state, but drift northeast into B.C.  Close enough to kick up gap winds caused by the Low pulling over Higher pressure east of the Cascades.  Well this looks to be partly the case again Tuesday, though as of now the foothills should be positioned under more of a SE-NW gradient, and much quicker progression.  More characteristic of lower gap wind gusts followed by gusty and rainy widespread conditions across much of Western Wa., not the persistent howling from the east.  Wednesday is where things look a bit different for a change. Euro model Wed 1/13 10 am Per the E

The Week Ahead - Rain, Wind, Snow, Rain..What's Next ?...

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A very active 24-hours of weather we've had, indeed!  ~3" of rain, near 40 mph wind gusts, followed by wet snow - bringing 1-2" in some of the foothill elevations last night before changing back over to rain this morning.   Credit: Ben Tarkington, 12:30 am Sunday @ 870ft elevation (Snoqualmie Ridge) I feel for the poor souls that were stuck for hours at the pass last night :( NWS has extended a Winter Storm Watch for Snoqualmie pass through most of Monday, still snowing hard at times up there! The Snoqualmie River is running high (~14k cfs) near the falls this morning but is not expected to reach flood stages.  Those levels still make for an excellent stop at the visitors center to witness this awesome force of nature! This next week (3rd-10th) looks to bring more active weather. For Sunday the story should be lingering showers, in the 30's but rising to low-mid 40's by mid afternoon. Overnight we should see easterly winds pick up through the Cascade gaps (~30-40