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Showing posts from October, 2020

The Week Ahead - Looking mostly dry...until Halloween of course:(

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Fall City Farms We've begun a chilly start Sunday with our first frost, but today should still make for a great last dry weekend run to the pumpkin patch ahead of an otherwise quiet Autumn week ahead.    Cool and crisp today with high pressure in place.  Highs should reach mid-40°s. Since 1981, Snoqualmie Valley averages 39 days a year with at or below freezing temperatures vs. an average of 27 per year at Sea-tac airport over the same period. To recap the last couple days, warmer air invaded much of the southern half of Washington on Friday, busting up chances for significant snowfall at Snoqualmie Pass, or to see a few wet flakes here in the foothills.  However, several places in the northern half of the state had a very early glimpse of winter. I was fortunate enough to be in Spokane Friday evening (23rd) to witness their snowiest October day ever (6.2"), breaking a record dating back to 1957. Nothing in E. WA along I-90 until about 40 miles from city limits and t...

The Week Ahead - October Snow on the Way?

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Could this be a similar view for us next weekend (October 24th)?  Very possible! Models aren't saying this is a totally crazy idea. Well...what about this one? Not likely.. Several folks in the weather community the past few days have pointed out that a few GFS ensembles show very chilly temperatures by next weekend (~24th-26th).  While a few model outliers in context of bucking strong seasonal odds (it's only October!) is usually dismissed as 'Fantasy', now the higher resolution Euro model does seem to be in agreement for some kind of major cool down.  Not quite as extreme a forecast, but certainly an eye opener for this time of year.  weather.us All the early buzz is pinned on the likelihood high pressure remains steadfast over the northeastern Pacific, feeding persistent northwest flow down into the Pacific NW  bringing a pattern of unseasonable cool air and weak frontal activity that might just eke out a wet snow shower or two down below pass levels . ...

The Week Ahead - Hawks Game Windstorm Possible! And another Tuesday, before drier conditions later in week

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We're really transitioning into active Fall-like weather now, aren't we? Saturday in Snoqualmie Valley featured blustery winds with ~2" of rain that mostly fell in the morning.   However, our Puget Sound neighbors to the north were graced by a round 2 dumping, a classic convergence zone (CZ) setup yesterday afternoon that featured hail and thunderstorms.   A few excellent shots were captured by some storm chasers... Seen from Kenmore Saturday afternoon by Michael Snyder @seattlewxguy (on twitter) Let's look at this NWS graphic of vertical heights from one of the more active storm cells over N. Lake Washington yesterday.  Fascinating.  Cells stretching into the higher altitudes were very conducive to the lightning and heavy rain or hail dropped in several locations from the Bothell-area on northward. And given the cool unstable air that ushered in behind the main front Saturday morning, the first snow of the season for some of our higher passes. Now let's lo...

The Week Ahead - October cool down on the way, enjoy first half of week

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By the time of year that October rolls around, with the long nights and much lower sun angle, if the air is relatively stagnant we're very likely going to get FOG.  That's been the story the last few mornings. Friday and Saturday the fog burned off to gorgeous afternoons, but a weak front that brushed us today kept things overcast this afternoon.   Mt. Si Golf Course - Friday afternoon (10/2) Monday we should be back to areas of morning fog, but that should give way to afternoon sunshine.  Same story for Tuesday and Wednesday, with somewhat warmer afternoons that might reach 70°.  I think it's wishful thinking for my tomatoes at this point:(   The bigger change starts to occur in the atmosphere as the upper level ridge moves east mid-week, bringing a more southwesterly flow.  Thursday looks overcast ahead of the next system.   Models had continued to shift back the timing of rain for this coming week, but now appear to be in consensus fo...